Projected 2005 POST-Season Top 25

Everyone loves Preseason Top 25s, Sports Illustrated, ESPN the Magazine, Sporting News, Street & Smith's, Playboy, Penthouse, Maxim, Stuff, FHM, Razor, Loaded. You could or in my case may have spent two full days on a toilet just reading preseason Top 25's. They all follow the same formula. Rank the powerhouse teams 1-4 your USC, Miami, Oklahoma, Texas then when you start to get bored they throw that trendy team at No. 5. A team that while not regularly among the elite in college football has many starters coming back and finished strong last season. The problem is publications that make preseason Top 25's never really look at a team's schedule to see if their expectations are realistic. So what you get is a Top 25 that is a funny read if you find it under your bed on January 5 because maybe half the teams are in the Top 25 at the end of the season.

So, I have decided to do something different, I have read up on each of the 119 Division 1-A football teams, looked at the amount of experienced players they have playing this year. Looked at their schedules and assigned a SW (Should Win) or an SL (Should Lose) next to each of their games. From that information I have assigned them a likely Top 25 position going into their bowl, projected the results, then made what you will read: The Pizza Parlor's Projected Post-Season Top 25.

25. UTEP 2004: 8-4, Returning Starters: 11, Should Wins 11, Should Losses 1, Projected Bowl Result: Lose to Utah in Liberty Bowl- Mike Price takes his Miners into Conference USA (apparently Memphis has better strip clubs than Boise) to help fortify a conference without Louisville, Cincinnati, or South Florida. Price's program is on the way up, Conference USA is on the way down.

24. Boston College 2004: 9-3, RS: 15, SW 9, SL 2, Projected Bowl Result: Lose to Syracuse in Meineke Car Care Bowl- BC has bolted the Big East to feud with obvious natural rivals Clemson, N.C. State, and Florida State (same colors). While I can't promise a "Clemson Sucks, Whitehurst Swallows" T-Shirt will ever make it to print, The Eagles should fare well in their new conference making yet another bowl.

23. Georgia 2004: 10-2, RS: 15, SW 9, SL 2, Projected Bowl Result: Lose to Iowa in Outback Bowl- With David Greene gone, Mark Richt's quarterback sounds like he should be performing at the Apollo Theater before he performs between the hedges. D.J. Shockley has the benefit of garbage time experience and an adoring public in Samford.

22. Fresno State 2004: 9-3, RS: 17, SW 9, SL 2, Projected Bowl Result: Beat UAB in Hawai'i Bowl- The reason Fresno State hasn't joined the Pac-10 is because they are a menace to any Pac-10 team that schedules them. It will be tough for Fresno to duplicate a trend of Pac-10 upsets this year as they travel to Los Angeles to take on USC.

21. Iowa State 2004: 7-5, RS: 20, SW 9, SL 2, Projected Bowl Result: Beat Oregon in Holiday Bowl- Yeah, that's right Iowa State will earn the right to get crushed by Texas in the Big XII Championship Game. This program is on the rise but don't expect a New Year's Day bowl this year.

20. Wyoming 2004: 7-5, RS: 19, SW 10, SL 1, Projected Bowl Result: Beat Arizona State in Emerald Bowl- Sorry I have nothing to say here. The state is shaped like a square, but they're supposed to be good.

19. Boise State 2004: 11-1, RS: 17, SW 9, SL 2, Projected Bowl Result: Beat Georgia Tech in MPC Computers Bowl- If the Broncos beat Georgia on Sept. 3 and not make the BCS, I am making it my life's mission to bring down the institution forever. Do yourself a favor and watch one game on their famous blue turf, you won't be able to imagine college football any other way.

18. Texas Tech 2004: 8-4, RS: 16, SW 9, SL 2, Projected Bowl Result: Beat Penn State in Alamo Bowl- Supposedly, Mike Leach has a defense this year. I'll believe it when i see it.

17. Toledo 2004: 9-4, RS: 16, SW 11, SL 1, Projected Bowl Result: Beat Tulsa in Motor City BowlAre Toledo head coach Tom Amstutz and Kansas head coach Mark Mangino related? Google both of them, then you tell me.

16. Tennessee 2004: 10-3, RS: 16, SW 9, SL 2 Projected Bowl Result: Lose to The Ohio State in Capital One Bowl-This is lower than a lot of polls but I rank perpetual underachievers lower than most. Phillip Fulmer had a turbulent offseason and the 1999 Fiesta Bowl is becoming more of a memory with every year. Still Steve Spurrier's reinsertion into the conference should keep Fulmer focused and the way this team finished last season has all of Knoxville excited.

15. Oklahoma 2004: 12-1, RS: 17, SW 10, SL 1 Projected Bowl Result: Lose to Auburn in Cotton Bowl-While chronic academic underachievers, Bob Stoops squad actually underachieved grossly on the field in the Orange Bowl last year. Adrian Peterson returns but not much else. That said, Oklahoma should make Texas earn the Red River Shootout and contend for the Big XII South title.

14. LSU 2004: 9-3, RS: 18, SW 11, SL 1 Projected Bowl Result: Lose to Michigan in Fiesta Bowl- I have to write this in cajun so here geauxs. Nick Saban has left and Les Miles comes from Eauxklahoma State. Running Backs Justin Vincent, Jeauxseph Addai, and Shyrone Carey will lead a predominantely running Eauxffense. SU coaching candidate Beaux Pellini will take on a leauxded defense.

13. Auburn 2004: 13-0, RS: 13, SW 9, SW 2 Projected Bowl Result: Beat Oklahoma in Cotton Bowl- Replacing a Quarterback and two Running Backs is tough but this team has a chip on their shoulder and Tommy Tuberville will not let them forget what happened to them last year. If my prediction rings true and they do draw Oklahoma in a bowl game, watch out.

12. Florida State 2004: 9-3, RS: 11, SW 9, SW 2 Projected Bowl Result: Beat South Carolina in Peach Bowl- Bobby Bowden was going to have a hard enough time replacing 11 starters, and then his starting quarterback jumped on a hood of a car calling himself "God". The jokes should flow swimmingly but wins over Miami and Virginia Tech will be harder to come by. Still FSU is Talent U and the freshman class this year is the best in the country.

11. Iowa 2004: 10-2, RS: 13, SW 9, SW 2 Projected Bowl Result: Beat Georgia in Outback Bowl- This is Kirk Ferentz's last year at Iowa. The Bill Belichick protege will almost certainly find himself in the NFL next year. The potential for an explosive offensive is there and in the Big Ten explosive means 21 points per game. The defense is a little shaky and keeps this team from joining the nations elite.

10. The Ohio State 2004: 8-4, RS: 18, SW 10, SL 1 Projected Bowl Result: Beat Tennessee in Capital One Bowl- I really wish the Buckeyes would ask to be called The Ohio State when referred to on television. If your gonna make parents and boosters write checks to "The Ohio State University" you should give your football team the extra intimidation of being called The Ohio State. Like 'The Undertaker' or 'The Big Unit' people are more intimidated by anything that starts with The. Whether or not Michigan will be intimidated by The Ohio State coming up to Ann Arbor is another story. Tressel avoids probation, wins bowl games, and beats Michigan better than any other coach in OSU history, this year two out of three ain't bad.

9. Purdue 2004: 7-5, RS: 20, SW 11, SL 0 Projected Bowl Result: Lose to Louisville in Sugar Bowl-TRENDY PICK ALERT! Three reasons 1)20 starters, including the entire defense return 2) Neither The Ohio State or Michigan are on the schedule and 3) The Big Ten needs a round-robin schedule and Purdue taking their BCS spot through the back door may be what it takes to get it. If Joe Tiller can't win the Big Ten this year, he may be on the hot seat for next.

8. Miami 2004: 9-3, RS: 14, SW 10, SL 1 Projected Bowl Result: Beat Pittsburgh in Gator Bowl- Three losses is an outrage in Coral Gables and there were some murmurs about what Larry Coker had or hadn't accomplished with a team outside of the one he inherited his first season. Donna Shalala signed him to a five year extension so the seat should be cool for Coker. Devin Hester is remote control stopper whenever the Canes' opponents are punting. I can't believe I'm saying this but DON'T SLEEP ON MIAMI!

7. Utah 2004: 12-0, RS: 12, SW 11, SL 0 Projected Bowl Result: Beat UTEP in Liberty Bowl- It will be hard to duplicate last year's dream season, especially with Urban Meyer and Alex Smith out of the mix, but the schedule is favorable for another undefeated season. Don't expect the outcry for a BCS bowl again this year as their only BCS conference opponent is lowly Arizona.

6. Texas 2004: 11-1, RS: 17, SW 11, SL 1 Projected Bowl Result: Lose to Florida in Orange Bowl- The Eagles made the Super Bowl, the Red Sox beat the Yankees, certainly the next shoe should drop this year and Mack Brown can finally beat Oklahoma. Unfortunately, he picked the wrong year to visit The Shoe. An early loss to The Ohio State may trip up National Championship hopes, but a dream season can still be salvaged in Austin. Hopefully the 'Horns season will be more exciting than Real World: Austin's season.

5. Florida 2004: 7-5, RS: 13, SW 11, SL 1 Projected Bowl Result: Beat Texas in Orange Bowl- I feel like I've been reading about Chris Leak all my life. If he can get his head around himself and Urban Meyer's offense, the sky is the limit for this talented crew. You think Urban Meyer can score more UF girls than Billy Donovan? You think either have tried?

4. Louisvlle 2004: 11-1, RS: 15, SW 11, SL 0 Projected Bowl Result: Beat Purdue in Sugar Bowl- I just know we're in for a whole year of "Louisville should be in Rose Bowl","No, they shouldn't","They're undefeated in a BCS conference","The Big East should not be allowed to exist!" Brian Brohm is an upgrade over Stefan Lefors and let the controversy ring all year long, dragging the Big East's good name through the mud the whole way through.

3. Virginia Tech 2004: 10-4, RS: 14, SW 12, SL 0 Projected Bowl Result: Lose to USC in Rose Bowl- I want to pick the Hokies so bad, I want you to walk away with a surprise at the end of this blog, I really do. I see Va Tech winning the toughest conference in football and earning a spot in the Rose Bowl. But with Marcus Mexico behind center (and he's still the black sheep) and Frank "Lollipop, Lollipop, OH OH OH LOLLIPOP!" coaching against Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush and the rest of the 2004 National Champions. I can't pick them, sorry.

2. Michigan 2004: 9-3, RS: 16, SW 10, SL 1 Projected Bowl Result: Beat LSU in Fiesta Bowl- Chad Henne isn't a freshman anymore. Jamesville-DeWitt's Mikey Hart isn't either and isn't in the Carrier Dome. They host THE Ohio State. The Big Ten is a tough conference and getting past Iowa in Iowa City maybe too much to ask, but this team is loaded and will be for a while. Sorry, Daren.

1. USC 2004: 13-0, RS: 15, SW 11, SL 0 Projected Bowl Result: Beat Virginia Tech in Rose Bowl- Yeah, that's right you read this whole thing just to see me pick who everybody else picks. I'm sorry, but I'm going with the house. Plus we'll get weeks of Paul's Annotated Pizza Parlor just calling me an idiot.

Now, let's see how I do. Enjoy the Pageantry!!!

Rest of College Football Week Coming over the Weekend

Sorry guys, my new job has caused me to fall behind on the blog a couple days. The Heisman Preview, SU Preview, and Top 25 are all in progress and should be ready by the end of the weekend. Until then and for a hint of what's to come here are my projected bowl matchups. (Note: I do not project some conferences to have enough bowl eligible teams to fill all of their slots, those slots have been filled with teams without a direct bowl allocation e.g. Navy)

New Orleans Bowl- North Texas vs. Houston

GMAC Bowl- Memphis vs. Miami (OH)

Las Vegas Bowl- New Mexico vs. Washington State

Poinsetta Bowl- Nevada vs. Brigham Young

Fort Worth Bowl- Southern Mississippi vs. Northern Illinois

Hawai'i Bowl- UAB vs. Fresno State

Motor City Bowl- Toledo vs. Tulsa

Champs Sports Bowl- Virginia vs. Colorado

Insight Bowl- California vs. West Virginia

Alamo Bowl- Texas Tech vs. Penn State

MPC Computers Bowl- Boise State vs. Georgia Tech

Emerald Bowl- Wyoming vs. Arizona State

Holiday Bowl- Oregon vs. Iowa State

Independence Bowl- Navy vs. Texas A&M

Music City Bowl- Arkansas vs. Bowling Green

Peach Bowl- Florida State vs. South Carolina

Sun Bowl- Connecticut vs. UCLA

Houston Bowl- Nebraska vs. Alabama

Liberty Bowl- UTEP vs. Utah

Meineke Car Care Bowl- Boston College vs. Syracuse

Capital One Bowl- The Ohio State vs. Tennessee

Cotton Bowl- Oklahoma vs. Auburn

Gator Bowl- Miami vs. Pittsburgh

Outback Bowl- Iowa vs. Georgia

Fiesta Bowl- Michigan vs. LSU

Sugar Bowl- Louisville vs. Purdue

Orange Bowl- Florida vs. Texas

Rose Bowl- Southern Cal vs. Virginia Tech

College Football's Must-See Game of Each Week

I will make this my first prediction of this blog: There will be a college football game to watch every minute for twelve hours every Saturday this season. Between CBS, ABC, NBC, ESPN, ESPN 2, ESPN Plus, ESPN Plus 2, ESPN U, ESPN U2, and Fox Sports Net if your favorite college football team isn't on television, then they just plain suck and you shouldn't like them anyway.

However with so many games on a given week, it can be difficult to sort the great matchups and interesting games from all the crappy college football that can be out there.

So as a service to you the viewer the following is the 'Game of the Week' for every week of the college football season.

September 3- Boise State at Georgia: Do you believe in miracles? Actually this is more Super Bowl III than the 1980 Winter Olympics, because we can find out if Boise State and teams of the like can compete with the best BCS Conference teams. If Boise State wins Trev Alberts has to kiss Bronco coach Dan Hawkins ass. Well, not really but I can dream.

September 10- Arizona State at LSU: Yes, The Ohio State does play Texas this week, but I'm watching this for the crowd shots. From my observations, there is not a bad looking girl that goes to either of these two schools. I'm hoping for a blowout either way.

September 17- Tennessee at Florida: The winner of this game has the inside track on the SEC East title and could start a run for the Roses.

September 24: Notre Dame at Washington: Tyrone Willingham gets his dream shot at 'The Man' who persist on keeping the black man down. Kill Whitey!

October 1- South Carolina at Auburn: As coach of Florida, Steve Spurrier reacted to the news of a fire at a library on Auburn's campus, "The sad news is half the books hadn't been colored in yet." Now he takes his subpar South Carolina team into Jordan-Hare, for once that state trooper escort out of the stadium may be necessary.

October 8- Oklahoma vs. Texas (in Dallas): The Red River Rivalry has been more The Hammer-Nail Rivalry for the past few years, but if this Texas team can't beat OU, none can and Mack Brown may never.

October 15- Louisville vs. West Virginia: No Francisco Garcia, no Kevin Pittsnogle, but this is Louisville's only obstacle to being college football's pain-in-the-ass undefeated team of the season.

October 22- Michigan at Iowa: You miss college football until you hear Brent Musberger call a Michigan game, Blue gets The Ohio State at home this year and if they tackle this trip to Iowa City we could get a true Rose Bowl as our National Championship.

October 29- South Carolina at Tennessee: The Ole Ball Coach returns to the listings taking on his hated rival Phillip Fulmer. This may be the first game with a pregame brawl between coaches.

TUESDAY November 1- UAB at Memphis: 1)One of few chances to catch Memphis Running Back Deangelo Williams and scout him for your fantasy draft next year 2) UAB's quarterback Darrell Hackney tips the scales at 240 and is a dead ringer for Biz Markie. There's nothing more fun to watch than a fat quarterback have to scramble 3)IT'S ON A TUESDAY, what else are you gonna watch? These teams have had like 15 days to come up with gimmick plays and if they're crazy enough to schedule a game on a Tuesday, anything is possible.

November 5- Miami at Virginia Tech: Note to security, don't let Mike Tranghese in without a thorough check of his belongings. Seriously though this is another BCS placement game as both teams can handle Florida State.

November 12- Navy at Notre Dame: Gold helmets, the green grass of Notre Dame Stadium, Touchdown Jesus. This is your HD game of the year! If your not a snob like me and don't have HD, go to Best Buy and check this game out.

November 19- Fresno State at USC: Let's put it this way, I might put up goal posts in my backyard and if Fresno State wins, I may knock them down myself and carry them across my block. Yes, I will be drunk.

November 26- Florida State at Florida: My favorite rivalry as it always turns out to be exciting and competitive every year, that's all. Urban Meyer's pomade should beat Bobby Bowden's straw hat but it will be close, trust me.

December 3- Army vs. Navy (in Philadelphia): To show I'm not a heartless prick, I may well up at the end of the Army-Navy game each year. I may.

I hope that helps you to watch more college football this season, however now the hard part; Check your local listings for stations and times.

'Doctor Sauce' Takes on the BCS

College Football is my favorite sport. Future heroes playing in the settings of the past's most stalwart and storied traditions, rivalries, and venues. While the names and faces changes, not much else changes in College Football from year to year. In fact almost nothing does.

The desire to keep a status quo in College Football, while the source of many great things about the sport, is also the source of its major flaw. The lack of a valid method of determining a National Champion.

Assuming you are a college football fan, you are familiar with its postseason system. For a more extensive history read History of the BCS from the BCS Official Site (it's objective, sure, just leaves out a few details)but basically from World War II to 1990, only nine times did the No. 1 and No. 2 teams play each other in a bowl game. In an effort to correct this, The Bowl Coalition was formed. The Bowl Coalition preserved conference ties to bowl games (SEC-Sugar, Southwest-Cotton, Big 8-Orange, the Rose refused to participate leaving the Big 10 and Pac 10 out of the Bowl Coalition) but stated that in the event the Big East, ACC (Miami and Florida State had joined those conferences respectively that year) champion or Notre Dame were the No. 1 or No. 2 team they would be automatically be sent to the bowl of the other No. 1 or No. 2 team to create a National Championship Game. As with all the BC-whatever arrangements it worked its first year as No. 1 Miami went to the Sugar Bowl and lost to No. 2 Alabama in the 1992 Sugar Bowl.

Of course the Bowl Coalition imploded in 1994 when Penn State went undefeated beating Oregon in the Rose Bowl but was voted No. 2 in both polls to Nebraska, because they were sent to the Rose Bowl as the Big Ten Champion outside of The Bowl Coalition.

Replaced by The Bowl Alliance, the Rose Bowl, Big Ten, and Pac Ten refused to be included. The difference between The Bowl Alliance and The Bowl Coalition was that conference-bowl arrangements were dissolved and the Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange Bowls selected from a pool of the Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 8, Southwest champions and Notre Dame (in case you were wondering, Notre Dame was still in the elite of college football at this time).

The Bowl Alliance was not exposed until 1997 when No. 1 and undefeated Michigan won a close Rose Bowl against Washington State, while No. 2 Nebraska beat Florida 42-17. The result is Michigan winning the AP National Championship and Nebraska winning the coaches poll. A split national championship brings reform to pretty much what we have now.

The Bowl Championship Series is an agreement with four bowls (Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, Rose) and six conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big Twelve, Pac Ten, SEC). The No. 1 and No. 2 teams, determined by the BCS Rankings, play in whichever bowl is designated the national championship game that year. As a condition to agreeing to their inclusion in the BCS, the Rose Bowl gets the Big Ten and/or Pac Ten champions whenever a) the Rose is not the National Championship and b) the Big Ten and/or Pac Ten champions are not the No. 1 or No. 2 teams in the BCS Rankings. After determining the top two teams, the three other bowls in the Series select between the four other conference champions and two at-large teams, usually the top ranking teams in the BCS rankings.

While admittedly, the BCS has allowed the consensus best team in the country to win its national championship (except for 2004 when USC and LSU both went undefeated and split the championship), the BCS is flawed in many ways:

1)Rarely are the TWO best teams clearly defined by the time bowl participants are selected. For example, while USC was clearly the No. 1 team in the country, their blowout win over Oklahoma and Auburn's win over Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl, capping an undefeated season, seems to imply that Auburn should have been in the Orange Bowl over Oklahoma. That's not to say Auburn would have beaten Oklahoma but USC's Championship did not come over the second best team in the country last year.

2)The BCS System and the BCS Rankings are heavily skewed towards the six conferences participating. Only once has a team outside of the six 'BCS Conferences' made a BCS bowl, that being Utah last year who went undefeated including wins over BCS Conference opponents and still barely qualified to go to the Fiesta Bowl, the lowest bowl on the tier that year.

Teams from the Mid-American, Conference USA, Mountain West, Western Athletic, and Sun Belt, or nearly 40 percent of all Division I-A College Football programs have a minimal chance to make a BCS bowl and just about no shot at its National Championship. The Division 1-B schools are irrelevant in college football except to provide non-conference home-and-home series with the larger schools.

While you could argue and be right that these schools, in general, are inferior to their BCS conference counterparts, the BCS creates a glass ceiling for schools like Utah, Fresno State, Boise State, and Bowling Green. It's hard to go into the living room of the best high school running back in Florida touting your three straight Liberty Bowl appearances. The result is a consolidation in talent to schools in the BCS and the consolidation of schools defecting from Non-BCS Conferences to BCS Conferences (e.g. Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida join the Big East this year replacing Boston College and Temple as Boston College is joining the more competitive ACC this year).

3)The dependency on polls and computer rankings. 2/3 of the BCS rankings are determined by two polls. Formerly the AP poll and ESPN/USA Today Coaches poll. Both polls originated before the season started, when nobody really knows anything, as I will prove on Friday. The AP poll is comprised of college football writers from across the country and the ESPN/USA Today Coaches poll is a survey of the country's college football coaches. Frustrated by the AP's tendency to vote for a seperate national champion than determined by the Bowl Championship Coalition/Alliance/Series, the BCS dropped the AP poll and replaced it with the Harris College Football Interactive Poll, a more blue-ribbon type panel poll which will not be released until October to avoid preseason influence. ESPN this past spring removed its name from the Coaches poll after the coaches refused to make their votes public, raising a sniff of intraconference back-scratching corruption. The other third is a combination of computer rankings by Jeff Sagarin, Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey and Dr. Peter Wolfe. Who they are and what their rankings consist of has never been revealed clearly to anyone. I think Billingsley ranks colleges on the willingness of their sorority girls to put out, but that's just a rumor.

So you see the problem, almost confidential computer rankings, confidential coaches polls, and a panel selected by the BCS determine two teams to compete for a National Championship when many times three, four, or zero teams are more worthy than others, more than a third of teams in the country are on the outside looking in and on top of everything IT'S BORING....compared to basketball's March Madness and Doctor Sauce's idea:

The Bowl Championship Tournament

1)Three conferences (ACC, Big XII, SEC) send the winners of their conference championship games automatically into the tournament.

2)The three other conferences (Big East, Big Ten, Pac Ten) send their regular season champions to play-in games the week of the conference championship games.

Big East Champion vs. Division 1-A Independent Best Record (apparently Doctor Sauce still cries at the end of 'Rudy')

Pac Ten Champion vs. Mountain West Champion or Western Athletic Champion

Big Ten Champion vs. Conference USA or Mid-American Champion.

3)The Sunday after the conference championships and BCT play-in games, the field for the Bowl Championship Tournament including the winners of the six games and two at-large teams are seeded and announced.

4)BCT games are played at a rotation of Miami (Orange Bowl), New Orleans (Sugar Bowl), Glendale (Fiesta Bowl), and Pasadena. With Pasadena getting the first BCT Championship Game and called the Rose Bowl.

5)Four quarterfinals are played at two sites on New Year's Day. Two semifinals at another site a week from the Saturday after New Year's Day. The National Championship is played at the last site a week from the semifinals.

6)All other bowls remain unchanged, Doctor Sauce would never attempt to eliminate colored blazers under any circumstances.

7)The 11-game schedule is permanent, no expansion of a 12th game.

8)The Sun Belt is dropped to Division 1-AA, sorry North Texas.

9)A 10 year moritorium on college football program conference movement

The result is four teams playing one more college football week and two teams playing two more weeks. All before the end of semester break. The essence of the Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, and Rose Bowls in tact with even more fans coming down to boost those city's tourism pockets. Conference Champions protected and outstanding regular seasons rewarded and the most exciting three weeks of the year. Ahhhhh....The Pagaentry! Doctor Sauce can't wait!