Politics Tuesday: "The Potomac Primary"

Now that "Super Tuesday" is over, the Primary Calendar gets more sparse with no more than four primaries on any one day for the rest of the calendar. John McCain is close to wrapping up the Republican nomination but has shown vulnerabilty as Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has won in all states with SEC football teams or states with significant Evangelical Christian populations. Today's Virginia primary is his best chance to expand his win resume beyond that. For the Democrats Barack Obama seems to be surging to the nomination with Hillary hoping for a brokered convention at best. Here is an oversimplified look at today's Maryland, D.C., and Virginia Primaries, known together as the "Potomac Primary".

Republicans

Delegate Scoreboard
John McCain 723 Delegates (61% of delegates needed for nomination)
Mike Huckabee 217 Delegates (18% of delegates needed for nomination)
Ron Paul 16 Delegates (1% of delegates needed for nomination) as well as Val Venis, Iron Mike Sharpe, Bastion Booger and the Brooklyn Brawler

Virginia: 63 Delegates (5% of delegates needed for nomination), Winner Take All- A state much like the profile of McCain’s biggest win to date, South Carolina. The state’s high military population may be enough to offset the conservatives in that state that he has yet to win over. A Huckabee win continues and perhaps strengthens the “conservative headache” in the McCain campaign.

Maryland: 37 Delegates (3% of delegates needed for nomination), awarded by congressional district- Without an influx of Evangelical Christians, I expect McCain to continue his stretch of Northeast coastal primary wins.

District of Columbia: 19 Delegates (1.5% of delegates needed for nomination), Winner Take All- I assume the 19 delegates to be THE 19 Republicans who live in Washington D.C. I think they sat behind us at a Nationals game once and I remember 11 of them saying they liked McCain’s stance on National Security. Nobody will miss a meal exit polling this primary.

Democrats
Delegate Scoreboard
Hillary Clinton 1,148 Delegates (56.6% of delegates needed for nomination)
Barrraaaack Oooooooobamaaaaaaaa! 1,121 Delegates (55.3% of delegates needed for nomination)

Virginia: 83 Delegates (4% of delegates needed for nomination): Hillary’s best chance at avoiding a sweep and tripping up the 100mph train that seems to be the Obama campaign is Northern Virginia and its Northeast transplants. The southern and southwest parts of the state appear to be Obama’s.

Maryland: 70 Delegates (3.4% of delegates needed for nomination): You don’t have to watch “The Wire” to figure out this state is firmly in the Obama column.

District of Columbia: 15 Delegates (.7% of delegates needed for nomination): Washington DC is 57% African-American, name any other state or area that’s 57% African-American? Obama is winning 85% of the Black vote. 85% of 57 is 48.45%. Should be enough to get these delegates and a lead in the delegate count.

Prediction: Anything less than a sweep for McCain or Obama would be a disappointment. Don't expect a long night either. Maryland and DC should be called on both sides when polls close at 7pm tonight. The Republican Virginia race will probably be the last called and even that shouldn't be late.