So...You're Saying there IS a Chance!

After reading Paul's post after the Syracuse-Georgetown game. I sense that Paul is prepared for SU being left out of the NCAA Tournament again this year. While things may not look so good for the Orange currently, to write them off is to ignore a lot of mediocrity that is going on nationally among teams that will be vying for the 34 At-Large bids come March. Syracuse is a great basketball team that deserves to go to the NCAA Tournament this year. Syracuse's resume is such that it could be included in the 65 team field in what many have already labeled a "rebuilding year". While nothing below will heal Eric Devendorf's ACL, make Arinze Onuaku a good free-throw shooter or make Scoop Jardine any good at all, here is a pollyanna's optimistic look at the Syracuse resume.

Wins: All SU fans know Syracuse's 22 wins were the most by a Big East Tournament to not make the tournament since the field expanded to 65 teams. The Orange currently have 13 wins with 11 games to play. Before you think to yourself "Oh shit, they have to go 10-1" Here is what this year's team has going for it that others haven't.

RPI: As of this post Syracuse's RPI is 39th nationally. In this decade 6 of 8 teams ranked 39th have made the NCAA Tournament all by way of an at-large bid. Last year when Syracuse was notoriously snubbed, their RPI was 50.

Strength of Schedule: Syracuse's strength of schedule is 4th in the country behind Arizona, Miami (OH), and Tennessee. This is expected to at least hold steady if not bump up a spot but it most likely will not drop below 10th nationally. Since 2000, no team with 19 wins or more and a Strength of Schedule in the Top 10 has missed the tournament.

Record vs. Top 50: Has actually gone up to 1-6 (The Hawk will never die) since Paul's post, but an understandable concern nonetheless. How can Syracuse expect the committee to put it in the tournament unless they prove they can beat tournament teams? Forgetting that Kevin Durant and Texas only had 2 wins against teams in the Top 50 in the RPI last year, the Orange have more than ample opportunity to change this blemish on their resume with NINE games remaining against teams currently in the RPI Top 50. Five at home (Providence, Connecticut, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Marquette) and Four on the road (Villanova, Louisville, Notre Dame, Seton Hall). While the opponent's place in the RPI Top 50 is tentative, Syracuse has a great chance to rack up wins at least against teams that will be in the bubble discussion come early March and maybe one or two "marquee" wins.

So what must Syracuse do? Considering these numbers 6-5 does it, and 5-6 with one win at Madison Square Garden may do it too. That would put them 19-13 on Selection Sunday with a Strength of Schedule likely in the Top 5. That would make them better than the one 18 win team with such a resume that got snubbed (Cincinnati in 2005). This would require marquee wins vs. two of the Top 20 teams on the Home schedule and two road wins over bubble contenders Notre Dame and Seton Hall. Not a gimme by any means but if this team gained any confidence by hanging with the Preseason favorite in the conference for 45 minutes, it is possible.

(No I don't know this all of the top of my head. Between now and March, I will be leaning on Ken Pomeroy's RPI site which is the first RPI site I found with Top 50 breakdowns and SOS stats.)