Is This Ohio State-Michigan I???

While it hasn’t taken away from the hype surrounding this Saturday’s Ohio State-Michigan game in Columbus. Many college football pundits and prognosticators are speculating that the two teams may meet again in the BCS National Championship Game on January 8 in Glendale, Arizona. While this does go against everything the bowls are supposed to be and would present a real moral dilemma if each team won one of the games, here is the scenario that would have to play out.

1) The game would have to fall under the 6 ½ point spread. If Ohio State wins, the winning score would have to come in the last two minutes of the game or in overtime. If Michigan wins, it would have to be as a result of a bad official call or replay review similar to this September’s Oklahoma-Oregon game. The argument would have to be made that the January 8 game would be an “extension” of the November 18 game and the losing team would have to prove to be the second best team in the country in defeat. (possibility 8 out of 10)

2) Later that night, Cal would have to upset Southern Cal in Los Angeles. Entirely possible as the best athletes on the field will be playing for Cal in that game. Although USC is almost unbeatable at home. (possibility 5 out of 10)

3) The following week LSU must beat Arkansas in Little Rock. While Arkansas has that “Team of Destiny” feel to them, LSU’s defense should have what it takes to contain Darren McFadden and force Casey Dick to make plays. This is a “leap game” for Arkansas. (possibility 6 out of 10)

4) Only imperative if Michigan wins and Ohio State is the one-loss team, USC would have to, coming off a loss to Cal, beat Notre Dame at home. No one has any idea how good Notre Dame really is as they have played almost as weak of a schedule as Boise State and lost handily to Michigan at home. We know there are good players on offense but can their defense beat USC in Los Angeles? (possibility 7 out of 10)

5) Rutgers must lose to West Virginia in Morgantown. If Pat White and Steve Slaton get the Mountaineers up early, I have a hard time seeing Rutgers able to come back with no passing offense. Winning this game might be a little much to ask for from the “woodchoppers” (possibility 8 out of 10)

6) Florida would have to lose the SEC Championship Game to Arkansas. For the Razorbacks to be anything but “Gator Bait” they would have to pull off the only true upset out of the six scenarios (possibility 3 out of 10).

These six events would lead to every team but the Ohio State/Michigan loser in a top four conference having at least two losses. Boise State being the nation’s only other undefeated team and each of the Rutgers/Louisville/West Virginia triumvirate along with possibly Wake Forest having one loss. It would be hard to keep the loser of Saturday’s game out of the BCS National Championship under this scenario. I think even the Broncos would be content with a Fiesta Bowl berth and the three Big East teams can’t say they didn’t have their chance.

I see Florida and possibly USC winning out however leading to Florida getting to Glendale to play Saturday’s winner and being a ten point underdog but a very interesting matchup nonetheless.